Lifting Somalia’s Arms Embargo: Why It Is Not Suitable Now?

By Abukar Sanei*

June 22, 2023

Somalia has been under the United Nations Security Council Arms Embargo since 1992 after the collapse of the Somali state as internal war between the militants who overthrew Mohamed Siad Barre ensued. The original resolution that was adapted by the United Nations Security Council was 733 (1992) that came on April 24, 1992, and a committee was established under the resolution 751 (1992) to oversee the general and complete arms embargo. In 2005, Islamic Courts Union (ICU) came to power as they defeated the warlords who have been holding the Somali people hostage since 1991, but unfortunately, the terrorist group al-Shabaab was born around 2006. As Eritrea was “considered the supplier of arms and ammunitions,” in 2009, the arms embargo regime expanded as Eritrea was added to the sanction along with Somalia due to the fear that arms and ammunition can be easily accessed by al-Shabaab.

In recent years, there have been reviews by the United Nations Security Council about the status of the arms embargo as a partial lift of light weapons was granted to Somalia. In the 2022 meeting, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Robert A. Wood voted in favor of renewing the sanction regime of the arms embargo along with ten (10) other Security Council members even though he commended the progress in weapons and stockpile management with the hope that such progress will continue.

On the other hand, the objective of the Somali authorities is not about partial lift. They demand a full lift of the arms embargo, and as a result, in the last couple of years, there have been lobbying for the full lift of the arms embargo. There are, among others, two main arguments for this lobbying efforts. First, as “we are at war with al-Shabaab, we are handicapped, and we don’t have the necessary weapons and arms to defeat the terrorist group al-Shabaab.” Second, “we are a sovereign country, and we need to secure our borders.” In order to advance this lobbying efforts, President Hassan Sh. Mohamud came to the United States this week as he met U.S. officials including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon. In his brief address at the Pentagon, President Mohamud boasted about “his achievements” in terms of security. Yes, some improvements were made, mainly thanks to the vigilante group called Macawisleey, who started their war against al-Shabaab in Hirshabelle and Galmudug regions as of now. However, as the agenda of President Hassan Sh. Mohamud is to ask the full lift of the arms embargo, the daunting question is is Somalia really ready for a full lift of the arms embargo at this moment? The answer is simply no for two reasons: state fragility and, uncertainties in the protection of heavy weapons.

State Fragility

State-building is one of the criteria that can be used to measure the progress that Somalia has made toward maintaining its security. However, the process of a trustable state is still incomplete in Somalia even though it was President Hassan Sh. Mohamud who started the state-building process during his first term from 2012 to 2016. Mistrust among the Somali people still exists as up to date, there has never been a genuine reconciliation that can pave the way for building effective state institutions. Examples of state fragility can be seen from Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Hiiraan, Puntland and most recently Laas Caanood where the people of Sool region are fighting for their destiny. The people of Gedo don’t trust the Jubaland government as the community has been showing some grievances related to the power sharing issue. Similarly, the recent fights in the city of Baraawe in Lower Shabelle is all about fear from “domination.” In Hiiraan, the governor who led the struggle against al-Shabaab in the region was “sacked” as this unnecessary decision is now creating new conflicts in Hirshabelle region. All these crises are examples of how the state-building process is still fragile. Lifting the arms embargo will exacerbate these crises as someone will try to misuse his power and authority against the will of the people.

As these tensions are very real, from his part, President Hassan Sh. Mohamud has completely neglected the process of inclusivity and consensus building as that was clearly seen from the last National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting that was held in May this year. President Said Deni of Puntland has announced that his state will “manage its own affairs,” which means there won’t be a collaboration with the Federal Government. The unfortunate reality that can be seen today from Somalia is that there is a divided society, and the federal government is not working on healing the wounds, but on the contrary, it adds salt to the injury. Due to the state fragility, Somalia is not now suitable for a full lift of the arms embargo.

Uncertainty in the Protection of Weapons

The issue of state fragility and the incapacity to protect light weapons let alone heavy weapons are intertwined. The full lift of the arms embargo requires the Somali government to show that it has capacity to safeguard the heavy weapons, not only from al-Shabaab, but also from clan militias who may wear the security uniforms. If even safeguarding the heavy weapons is guaranteed, the question who can guarantee any misuse/abuse of the heavy weapons to be used for political reasons? Many people are now suspecting President Hassan Sh. Mohamud will stick to power as he may try to impose his “own election modality” that will not be free and fair in 2026 if he is still willing to prepare the country for election.

Moreover, there are two serious concerns that one can see from the current security system in Somalia. First, within the ranks of the Somali security personnel, it is hard to pinpoint who is al-Shabaab sympathizer and who is not. In this environment, it is clear that we don’t even know the real identity of those who will handle the heavy weapons if the full lift of the arms embargo is granted. Second, even though al-Shabaab is “defeated,” they are still capable of using many tactics including bribing the security officials. As was the case in many times, al-Shabaab can get into any area that they want, and there is someone who facilitates their access to wherever they want to attack. The facilitator can be “a member” of the security forces or someone with authority. The recent attacks of Villa Rosa and Pearl Beach Restaurant are some of the examples. Also, recently, the terrorist group raided the Ugandan forces as they were able to obtain more weapons and killed 54 soldiers of the Ugandan forces in Buulo Mareer, in Lower Shabelle region.

The lobbying efforts of the Somali government to gain a complete lift of the arms embargo are commendable, but the reality is that the current conditions are not suitable for a full lift of the arms embargo. Somalia is still a fragile country where the government at the federal and state levels do not enjoy the full trust of the people. Also, heavy weapons require a sophisticated security system, and in Somalia, this is not the case at this time. Therefore, the United Nations Security Council needs to continue its efforts to oversee the situation as it is still premature to grant a full lift of the arms embargo at this time.

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*Abukar Sanei is a Ph.D. Candidate in Mass Communication at Ohio University. He is also the Director and Co-Host of Governance and Development Forum.